FinTech SME Cashflow Forecasting Platform — UK Challenger Bank

TrueLayer AISP

business current account, business savings, business credit card transactions (12 months history, daily refresh).

HMRC MTD VAT API

VAT return history (quarterly liability) as a proxy for business revenue pattern.

Xero/QuickBooks API

invoice data (open invoices as receivables, supplier invoices as payables).

Data normalisation

all data sources normalised to a weekly cashflow category taxonomy (receipts, payroll, HMRC, supplier payments, bank charges, other). 13-

Forecasting methodology

category-specific algorithms.

Payroll

fixed (known amount and date from payroll data).

PAYE/NI

calculated from payroll data (employer NI + PAYE liability).

VAT

quarterly from MTD return history, smoothed to monthly accrual.

Sales receipts

ML model (LSTM sequence model in PyTorch) trained on 18 months of transaction history — learns business-specific payment timing patterns.

Supplier payments

invoice due dates from Xero/QuickBooks.

Stress test scenarios

what if largest customer is 30 days late? what if three invoices are disputed simultaneously? what if VAT is due in this period?

Each stress scenario

recalculates 13-week forecast with scenario applied, shows minimum cashflow week, and flags if balance drops below a configurable safety threshold.

Alert

• if forecast shows negative cashflow in any week within 4 weeks, bank sends in-app notification to SME owner.
• FCA Consumer Duty (Voluntary Extension): The bank voluntarily applied FCA Consumer Duty principles to all SME clients.

Consumer Support

cashflow alert triggers proactive outreach from SME relationship manager.

Consumer Understanding

forecast explanations in plain English ("Your lowest cashflow week is forecast for 14–20 March because your VAT payment is due and your two largest invoices are not expected to be paid until after that date").

Products and Services

credit facility upsell only surfaced when cashflow forecast shows genuine stress.