Project Overview
An NHS Integrated Care Board (ICB) responsible for health system planning across a population of 1.1 million p...
Technology Stack
Compliance & Standards
The Challenge
An NHS Integrated Care Board (ICB) responsible for health system planning across a population of 1.1 million people needed a digital capacity planning tool. The ICB needed to model healthcare demand (population growth, demographics, disease burden), map against capacity (hospital beds, GP appointments, community services), and identify capacity gaps for investment planning. NHS DSP Toolkit, UK GDPR Article 9, WCAG 2.1 AA for the governance dashboard, and NHS England planning data standards were the requirements. Budget: £80,000.
Our Approach
ONS Population Projections API
2024-based projections by age band, sex, and MSOA (Middle Super Output Area) — the ICB's planning geography.
Disease burden modelling
Public Health England Fingertips API for prevalence rates by MSOA (diabetes, COPD, cardiovascular disease, cancer).
Demand projection
age-sex-adjusted prevalence × population projection = expected disease burden 1, 5, and 10 years forward.
NHS Capacity Data Integration
NHS England Model Health System (MHS) data: reference rates for specialty activity by population age-sex profile.
NHS Estates data
hospital bed configurations, theatre lists, outpatient clinic capacity per provider.
Primary care
NHS Digital GP Appointments data (CSV upload from NHS England GP data).
Community services
CSDS (Community Services Data Set) from NHS Digital — community nursing, physiotherapy, mental health contacts.
Capacity Gap Analysis
- Capacity gap = projected demand − available capacity.
- Presented by service line, by geography (MSOA heatmap), and by time horizon (1/5/10 years).
Scenario modelling
"what if" analysis (e.g., increase GP capacity by 15% — what is the residual gap?).
Investment prioritisation
- gap severity × population vulnerability score × cost per unit capacity = investment priority index.
- Governance Dashboard WCAG 2.1
ICB Governing Body dashboard
- executive summary metrics (headline capacity gaps), drill-down by service line, and scenario comparison.
- WCAG 2.1
AA
non-technical ICB Board members include individuals with visual impairments — manual NVDA testing on every sprint.
Data export
Excel and CSV download for the actuarial and finance teams.
The Results
Tool live at 14 weeks, £72,000 — under budget.
ICB used the tool in the 2025/26 Joint Forward Plan (NHS planning submission).
NHSE review: capacity gap analysis cited as a strength in JFP peer review.
Five-year demand projection: identified £34M capacity investment requirement that was not visible in existing planning data.
Scenario modelling: GP capacity scenario showed 38% reduction in hospital outpatient demand gap.
WCAG 2.1 AA: zero issues in Cabinet Office monitoring.
“The £34M investment requirement that emerged from the capacity gap analysis changed our conversation with NHS England. We had been asking for £12M — the data showed we needed £34M, and we were able to evidence it. The tool was cited in the NHSE JFP peer review as a strength." — Chief Strategy Officer, NHS Integrated Care Board (name withheld)”
Project Details
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